Publications

Publications

Turasie, A.A., Coelho, C.A.S., 2016: Cointegration modelling for empirical South American seasonal temperature forecasts. International Journal of Climatology. pdf version

Lowe, R, Coelho, C.A.S., Barcellos, C., Carvalho, M.S., Catão, R.C., Coelho, G.E., Ramalho, W.M., Bailey, T.C., Stephenson, D.B., Rodó, X., 2016: Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. eLife, Vol. 5, p. 1. pdf version

Coelho, C.A.S., Cardoso, D.H.F., Firpo, M.A.F., 2015: Precipitation diagnostics of an exceptionally dry event in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 1, p. 1. pdf version

Freire, J.L.M., Freitas, S.R., Coelho, C.A.S., 2015: Calibraçcao do modelo regional BRAMS para a previsao de eventos climaticos extremos. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 30, p. 158-170. pdf version

Coelho, C.A.S., De Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S., Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custódio, A.S., Dutra, L.M.M., Da Rocha, R.P., Rehbein, A., 2015: The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 1, p. 1. pdf version

Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2015: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2014. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, July 2015. Vol. 96, No. 7, p. S99-S100. pdf version

Otto, F.E.L., Coelho, C.A.S., King, A., Perez, E.C., WAda, Y., Oldenborgh, G.J.V., Haarsma, R., Haustein, K., Uhe, P., Aalst, M.V., Aravequia, J.A., Almeida, W., Cullen, H., 2015: Factors other than climate change, main drivers of 2014/15 water shortage in southeast Brazil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, p. S35-S40. pdf version

Lowe, R., Carvalho, M.S, Coelho, C.A.S., Barcellos, C., Bailey, T.C., Stephenson, D.B., Rodó, X., 2015: Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics. Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol. 15, p. 20. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho, C.A.S., 2014: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society July 2013. Vol. 95, No. 7, p. S104-S105. pdf version

Lowe, R., Barcellos, C., Coelho, C.A.S., Bailey, T.C., Coelho, G.E., Graham, R., Jupp, T., Ramalho, W. M., Carvalho, M.S. ; Stephenson, D.B., Rodó, X., 2014: Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. Lancet Infectious Diseases, v. 14, 619-626. Manuscript and Appendix

Rodrigues, L.R.L., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Coelho, C.A.S., 2014: Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 42, 597-616. pdf version

Coelho, C.A.S., 2013: Comparative skill assessment of consensus and physically based tercile probability seasonal precipitation forecasts for Brazil. Meteorological Applications, 20, 236-245. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2013: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. August 2013, Vol. 94, No. 8, S103-S104. pdf version

Coelho, C.A.S., I. A. F. Cavalcanti, S. M. S. Costa, S. R. Freitas, E. R. Ito, G. Luz, A. F. Santos, C. A. Nobre, J. A. Marengo and A. B. Pezza, 2012: Climate diagnostics of three major drought events in the Amazon and illustrations of their seasonal precipitation predictions. Meteorological Applications, 19, 237-255. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2012: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2011. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. July 2012, Vol. 93, No. 7, S118-S119. pdf version

García-Serrano, J, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and C.A.S. Coelho, 2012: Understanding Atlantic multidecadal variability prediction skill. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053283. pdf version

Tim E. Jupp, T. E., R. Lowe, C.A.S. Coelho and D. B. Stephenson, 2012: On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 370, 1100-1120

Pezza, A. B. and C.A.S. Coelho, 2011: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2010. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Vol. 92, No. 6, June 2011, S136-S137. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S. and S.M.S. Costa, 2010: Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications. Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability.Vol. 2, Issue 5-6, December 2010, 317-325. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2010: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2009. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. July 2010.Vol. 91, No. 7, S1-S224. pdf version

Pezza, A. B., I. Simmonds and Coelho C.A.S., 2010: The unusual Buenos Aires snowfall of July 2007. Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 4, 249-254. pdf version

Balmaseda M.A., Y. Fujii, O. Alves, T. Lee, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, D. Stammer, Y. Xue, H. Freeland, M. J. McPhaden, L. Goddard and C.A.S. Coelho, 2010: Role of the ocean observing system in an end-to-end seasonal forecasting system. OceanObs'09 Conference. pdf version.

Lowe R., T.C. Bailey, D.B. Stephenson, R.J. Graham, C.A.S Coelho, M. Sa Carvalho and C. Barcellos, 2010: Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S. and L. Goddard, 2009: El Nino-induced tropical droughts in climate change projections. Journal of Climate . Vol. 22, No. 23, 6456-6476. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2009: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2008. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. August 2009.Vol. 90, No. 8, S1-S196. pdf version

Shongwe M. E., G. J. van Oldenborgh, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, B. de Boer, C.A.S. Coelho, and M. K. van Aalst, 2009: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa Journal of Climate . Vol. 22, No. 13, 3819-3837. pdf version

Stephenson D. B., C.A.S. Coelho, and I. Jolliffe, 2008: Two extra components in the Brier Score Decomposition. Weather and Forecasting . Vol. 23, No. 4, 752-757. pdf version

Oldenborgh G. J. van, C.A.S. Coelho and F. J. Doblas-Reyes 2008: Exploratory analysis and verification of seasonal forecasts with the KNMI Climate Explorer. ECMWF Newsletter No 116. Summer 2008, 4-5. pdf version

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2008: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2007. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. July 2008.Vol. 89, No. 7, S1-S180. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., C. A. T. Ferro, D. B. Stephenson and D. J. Steinskog, 2008: Methods for Exploring Spatial and Temporal Variability of Extreme Events in Climate Data Journal of Climate . Vol. 21, No. 10, 2072-2092. pdf version

F. J. Doblas-Reyes, C.A.S. Coelho and D. B. Stephenson, 2008: How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality? Meteorological Applications, 15, 155-162. pdf version

Shongwe M.E., C.A.T. Ferro, C.A.S. Coelho and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2007: Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 4185-4201. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda and R. Graham, 2007: Integrated seasonal climate forecasts for South America. CLIVAR Exchanges. No.43. Vol. 12, No. 4, 13-19.

Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2007: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2006. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. June 2007. S1-S135. pdf version

Shongwe, M. E., C. A. T. Ferro, C.A.S. Coelho and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2007: Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April 2007. abstract (pdf) .

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate. Vol. 19, No. 15, 3704-3721. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, A. Guetter and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America. Meteorological Applications, 13, 73-82. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, 2006: The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated coupled multi-model South American seasonal predictions during ENSO. Special issue of Advances in Geosciences. First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on The El Nino phenomenon and its global impact. Vol. 6, 51-55. pdf version

Oldenborgh G. J. van and Coelho C.A.S., 2006: Probabilistic seasonal forecast verification with the Climate Explorer. European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 2-7 April 2006. abstract (pdf) and poster (pdf)

New, M., B. Hewitson, D. B. Stephenson, A. Tsiga, A. Kruger, A. Manhique, B. Gomez, C. A. S. Coelho, D. N. Masisi, E. Kululanga, E. Mbambalala, F. Adesina, H. Saleh, J. Kanyanga, J. Adosi, L. Bulane, L. Fortunata, M. L. Mdoka and R. Lajoie, 2006: Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres). Vol. 111, D14102. doi:10.1029/2005JD006289. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2005: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 461, 26pp.

Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Balmaseda, 2005: From multi-model ensemble predictions to well-calibrated probability forecasts: Seasonal rainfall forecasts over South America 1959-2001 CLIVAR Exchanges. No.32. Vol. 10, No. 1, 14-20.

Stephenson D. B., C.A.S. Coelho, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Balmaseda, 2005: Forecast Assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus A . Vol. 57, 253-264. pdf version

Souza E.B., T. Ambrizzi and C.A.S. Coelho, 2004: Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the Northeastern South America. Revista Meteorologica. Vol. 29, 5-16. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO. Journal of Climate . Vol. 17, No. 7, 1504-1516.

Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts. ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 426, 16pp.

Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability forecasts by Bayesian combination with empirical forecasts. Seventh International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography , Wellington - New Zealand - March 2003. abstract or pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., C.B. Uvo and T. Ambrizzi, 2002: Exploring the impacts of the tropical Pacific SST on the precipitation patterns over South America during ENSO periods. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 71, 185-197. pdf version

Coelho C.A.S. and T. Ambrizzi, 2000: Climatological studies of the influences of El Ni� Southern Oscillation events in the precipitation pattern over South America during austral summer. Sixth International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography , 1 , 149-150, Santiago - Chile - April 2000. abstract or pdf version

Coelho C.A.S., A.R.M. Drumond, T. Ambrizzi and G. Sampaio, 1999: Estudo climatologico sazonal da precipitacao sobre o Brasil em episodios extremos da Oscilacao Sul. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, 14(1), 49-65. pdf version