Due to the update in ECMWF seasonal forecast system from System 4 to System 5 the EUROBRISA operational system has also been updated. The updated EUROBRISA system produces combined and calibrated (i.e. integrated) empirical-dynamical (i.e. hybrid) probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts for South America.
The updated system is composed by an empirical (statistical) model that uses the observed sea surface temperatures in the previous month over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans as predictors for South America seasonal precipitation of the following season (i.e. 1-month lead forecasts), and three coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 5, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), known as GloSea 5 GC2 and Meteo-France coupled model (System 5).
Real-time forecasts and verification products of the four individual models listed above and also hybrid (empirical-dynamical) integrated predictions that combine information from these four models into a single forecast are made available every month at the EUROBRISA website.