12/08/2015 09:40
Update on EUROBRISA seasonal forecast system
Due to the update in the UK Met Office seasonal forecast system from GloSea 5 to GloSea 5 GC2, the EUROBRISA system has also been updated. This update occurred in March 2015. The updated EUROBRISA system produces combined and calibrated (i.e. integrated) empirical-dynamical (i.e. hybrid) probabilistic precipitation seasonal forecasts for South America. The most recent updated system is composed by an empirical (statistical) model that uses the observed sea surface temperatures in the previous month over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans as predictors for South America seasonal precipitation of the following season (i.e. 1-month lead forecasts), and three coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), known as GloSea 5 GC2 and Meteo-France coupled model (System 4). Real-time forecasts and verification products of the four individual models listed above and also hybrid (empirical-dynamical) integrated predictions that combine information from these four models into a single forecast are made available every month at the EUROBRISA website.
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