PhD Project:
Forecast calibration and combination: Bayesian assimilation of seasonal climate
predictions
by
Caio
Augusto dos Santos Coelho
Department of Meteorology – University of
Reading
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e
Tecnológico – CNPq - Brazil
Supervisor: Dr. David B. Stephenson
Department of Meteorology – University of Reading
Co-Supervisor: Dr. Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting - ECMWF
The main proposes of this PhD project are:
1) To produce improved seasonal forecasts of probability of South American rainfall through the development of statistical seasonal forecasting methods;
2) To check the skill of the Southern Hemisphere ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts that are going to be made at ECMWF using the state-of-the-art coupled model as part of the DEMETER project. This will hopefully allow us to judge how predictable climate is over South America on seasonal time scales during ENSO events.
Methodology: The skill of ENSO and South American rainfall seasonal forecasts will be studied through the use of statistical techniques applied to climate analyses. A probabilistic Bayesian approach will be used to combine historical information with seasonal forecasts. Parametric approaches will be used to estimate probability density functions (p.d.f´s).