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Publications
Publications
Coelho, C. A. S., Baker, J. C. A., Spracklen, D. V., Kubota, P. Y. Souza, D. C., Guimarães, B. S.,
Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P., Sampaio, G., Klingaman, N. P., Chevuturi, A., Woolnough, S. J.,
Hart, N., Zilli, M., Jones, C. D., 2022: A perspective for advancing climate prediction services
in Brazil. Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
pdf version
Casati, B., Dorninger, M., Coelho, C. A. S., Ebert, E. E., Marsigli, C., Mittermaier, M. P.,
Gilleland, E., 2022: The 2020 International Verification Methods Workshop Online: Major Outcomes
and Way Forward. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society., v. 103, p. E899-E910.
web link
Escada, P., Coelho, C. A. S., Taddei, R., Dessai, S., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Donato, R.,
Kayano, M. T., Martins, E. S. P. R., Miguel, J. C. H., Monteiro, M., Moscati, M. C. L., 2021:
Climate services in Brazil: Past, present, and future perspectives. Climate Services.
v. 24, p. 100276. pdf version
Diamond, H. J., Schreck, C. J., Becker, E. J., Bell, G. D., Blake, E. S., Bond, S., Bringas, F. G.,
Camargo, S. J., Chen, L., Coelho, C. A. S., Domingues, R., Goldenberg, S. B., Goni, G., Fauchereau, N.,
Halpert, M. S., HE, Q., Klotzbach, P. J., Knaff, J. A., L´Heureux, M., Landsea, C. W., Lin, I.-I.,
Lorrey, A. M., Luo, J-J, Macritchie, K., Magee, A. D. , et al., 2021: The Tropics.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society., v. 102, p. S199-S262.
web link
Chevuturi, A., Klingaman, N. P., Rudorff, C. M., Coelho, C. A. S., Schongart, J., 2021: Forecasting
annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus. Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
pdf version
Coelho, C. A. S., Souza, D. C., Kubota, P. Y., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Baker, J. C. A., Figueroa, S. N.,
Firpo, M. A. F., Guimarães, B. S., Costa, S. M. S., Gonçalves, L. J. M., Bonatti, J. P., Sampaio, G.,
Klingaman, N. P., Chevuturi, A., Andrews, M. B., 2021: Assessing the representation of South American
monsoon features in Brazil and U.K. climate model simulations. Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
pdf version
Chevuturi, A., Klingaman, N. P., Guo, L., Holloway, C. E., Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S.,
Kubota, P. Y., Young, M., Black, E. Baker, J. C.A., Vidale, P. L., 2021. Subseasonal prediction
performance for South American land-atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer.
Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
pdf version
White, C. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Acharya, N., Adefisan, E. A., Anderson, M. L., Aura, S.,
Balogun, A. A., Bertram, D., Bluhm, S., Brayshaw, D. J., Browell, J., Büeler, D., Charlton-Perez, A.,
Chourio, X., Christel, I., Coelho, C. A. S., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., Di Giuseppe, F.,
García-Solórzano, A. M., Gibson, P. B., Goddard, L., González Romero, C., Graham, R. J., Graham, R. M.,
Grams, C. M., Halford, A., Katty Huang, W. T., Jensen, K., Kilavi, M., Lawal, K. A., Lee, R. W.,
MacLeod, D., Manrique-Suñén, A., Martins, E. S. P. R., Maxwell, C. J., Merryfield, W. J., Muñoz, Á. G.,
Olaniyan, E., Otieno, G., Oyedepo, J. A., Palma, L., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Pons, D., Ralph, F. M.,
Reis, D. S., Jr., Remenyi, T. A., Risbey, J. S., Robertson, D. J. C., Robertson, A. W., Smith, S.,
Soret, A., Sun, T., Todd, M. C., Tozer, C. R., Vasconcelos, F. C., Jr., Vigo, I., Waliser, D. E.,
Wetterhall, F., & Wilson, R. G., 2021: Advances in the application and utility of
subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society., p.1-57.
pdf version
Osman, M., Coelho, C. A. S., Vera, C. S., 2021: Calibration and combination of seasonal precipitation
forecasts over South America using Ensemble Regression. Climate Dynamics.
pdf version
Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Barreto, N. J. C., Alvarez, M. S., Osman, M., Coelho, C. A. S., 2021:
Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models
and influences on South America precipitation. Meteorological Applications
pdf version
Baker, J. C. A., de Souza, D. C., Kubota, P., Buermann, W., Coelho, C. A. S.,
Andrews, M. B., Gloor, M., Garcia-Carreras, L., Figueroa, S. N., Spracklen, D. V., 2021:
An assessment of land-atmosphere interactions over South America using satellites,
reanalysis and two global climate models. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
pdf version
Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Woolnough, S. J., Kubota, P. Y.,
Bastarz, C. F., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P., de Souza, D. C., 2021: An inter-comparison
performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four
sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Climate Dynamics.
pdf version
Marsigli, C., Ebert, E., Ashrit, R., Casati, B., Chen, J., Coelho, C. A. S.,
Dorninger, M., Gilleland, E., Haiden, T., Landman, S., Mittermaier, M., 2021:
Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification.
Natural hazards and earth system sciences, v.21, p.1297 - 1312.
pdf version
da Rocha Júnior, R. L., Cavalcante Pinto, D. D., dos Santos Silva, F. D., Gomes,
H. B., Barros Gomes, H, Costa, R. L., Santos Pereira, M. P., Peña, M., Coelho, C. A. S.,
Herdies, D. L., 2021: An Empirical Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting Model for the Northeast
Region of Brazil. Water., v.13, p.1613 -.
pdf version
Baker, J.C.A., Garcia-Carreras, L., Buermann, W., Castilho de Souza, D., Marsham, J. H.,
Kubota, P. Y., Gloor, M., Coelho, C. A. S., Spracklen, D. V., 2021: Robust Amazon
precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land-atmosphere interactions.
Environmental Research Letters.
pdf version
Coelho, C. A. S., de Souza, D. C., Kubota, P. Y., Costa, S. M. S., Menezes, L.,
Guimarães, B. S., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Sampaio, G,
Klingaman, N. P., Baker, J. C. A., 2021: Evaluation of climate simulations produced with
the Brazilian global atmospheric model version 1.2. Climate Dynamics.
pdf version
Klingaman, N. P., Young, M., Chevuturi, A., Guimarães, B., Guo, L., Woolnough, S. J.,
Coelho, C. A. S., Kubota, P. Y., Holloway, C. E., 2021: Subseasonal prediction performance
for austral summer South American rainfall. Weather and Forecasting.
pdf version
Alvarez, M. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Osman, M., Firpo, M. Â. F., Vera, C. S., 2020:
Assessment of ECMWF Subseasonal Temperature Predictions for an Anomalously Cold Week
Followed by an Anomalously Warm Week in Central and Southeastern South America during July 2017.
Weather and Forecasting, v.35, p.1871 - 1889.
pdf version
Baxter, S., Bell, G. D., Blake, E. S., Bringas, F. G., Camargo, S. J., Chen, L., Coelho, C. A. S.,
Domingues, R., Goldenberg, S. B., Goni, G., Fauchereau, N., Halpert, M. S., He, Q., Klotzbach, P. J.,
Knaff, J. A., L'heureux, M., Landsea, C. W., Lin, I.-I., Lorrey, A. M., Luo, J-J., Magee, A. D.,
Pasch, R. J., Pearce, P. R., Pezza, A. B., Rosencrans, M., Rrewin, B. C., Truchelut, R. E., Wang, B.,
Wang, H., Wood, K. M., Woolley, J-M., 2020: The Tropics. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. v.101, p.S185 - S238.
web link
Freire, J. L. M., Longo, K. M., Freitas, S. R., Coelho, C. A. S., Molod, A. M., Marshak, J.,
Silva, A., Ribeiro, B. Z., 2020: To What Extent Biomass Burning Aerosols Impact South America Seasonal
Climate Predictions?. Geophysical Research Letters., v.47, p.1 - 11.
web link
Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Woolnough, S. J., Kubota, P. Y., Bastarz, C. F., Figueroa, S. N.,
Bonatti, J. P., Souza, D. C., 2020: Configuration and hindcast quality assessment of a brazilian global
sub-seasonal prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. v.1, p.qj.3725 -.
pdf version
Merryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batte, L., Becker, E. J., Butler, A. H.,
Coelho, C.A.S., Danabasoglu, G., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J.,
Domeisen, D. I., Ferranti, L., Ilynia, T., Kumar, A., Muller, W. A.,
Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Smith, D. M., Takaya, Y., Tuma, M.,
Vitart, F., White, C. J., Alvarez, M. S., Ardilouze, C., Attard, H.,
Baggett, C., Balmaseda, M. A., Beraki, A. F., Battacharjee, P. S.,
Bilbao, R., Marques De Andrade, F., DeFlorio, M. J., Diaz, L. B.,
Ehsan, M. A., Frangkoulidis, G., Grainger, S., Green, B. W., Hell, M. C.,
Infanti, J. M., Isensee, K., Kataoka, T., Kirtman, B. P., Klingaman, N. P.,
Lee, J.-Y., Mayer, K., McKay, R., Mecking, J., Miller, D. E., Neddermann, N.,
Ng, C. H., Osso, A., Pankatz, K., Peatman, S., Pegion, K., Perwitz, J.,
Raclade-Coronel, G. C., Reintges, A., Renkl, C., Solaraju-Murali, B.,
Spring, A., Stan, C., Sun, Y. Q., Tozer, C. R., Vigaud, N., Woolnough, S.
and Yeager, S., 2020: Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to
decadal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
pdf version
Gubler, S., Sedlmeier, K., Bhend, J., Avalos, G., Coelho, C.A.S.,
Escajadillo, Y., Jacques-Coper, M., Martinez, R., Schwierz, C., Skansi, M.,
Spirig, CH., 2020: Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast performance
over South America. Weather and Forecasting., WAF-D-19-0106.1-1, 2020.
web link
Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2019: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2018.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2019. Vol.
100, No. 9, p. S109-S110.
pdf version
Guimaraes, B.S., Coelho, C.A.S., Woolnough, S.J., Kubota, P.Y.,
Bastarz, C.F., Figueroa, S.N., Bonatti, J.P., Souza, D.C., 2019: Configuration
and hindcast quality assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction
system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
pdf version
Geirinhas, J.L., Trigo, R.M., Libonati, R., Castro, L.C.O., Sousa, P.M.,
Coelho, C.A.S., Peres, L.F., Magalhaes, M. A. F.M., 2019:
Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in
Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates.
Science of The Total Environment. Volume 650, Part 1, 796-808.
pdf version
Scricco, I. M.,Coelho, C.A.S., 2018: Summer daily precipitation and wet day climatological features
in southeast São Paulo, Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2723-y
pdf version
Coelho, C.A.S., Firpo, M.A.F., de Andrade, F.M., 2018:
A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation
predictions. Meteorologische Zeitschrift.
pdf version
de Andrade, F.M., Coelho, C.A.S., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., 2018:
Global precipitation hindcast quality assessment of the Subseasonal to
Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Climate Dynamics.
pdf version
Pattnayak, K.C., Gloor, E., Tindall, J.C., Brienen, R.J.W., Barichivich, J.,
Baker, J.C.A., Spracklen, D.V., Cintra, B.B.L., Coelho, C.A.S., 2018:
Adding new evidence to the attribution puzzle of the recent water shortage
over São Paulo (Brazil), Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 70:1, 1-14.
pdf version
Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2018: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2017.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, August 2018. Vol. 99, No. 8, p. S109-S110.
pdf version
Rodrigues, L.R.L., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Coelho, C.A.S., 2018:
Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature
and precipitation predictions over Europe. Climate Dynamics.
pdf version
dos Santos, A.P.P, Coelho, C.A.S., Pinto Junior, O., dos Santos, S.R.Q.,
de Lima, F.J.L., de Souza, E.B., 2018: Climatic diagnostics associated with
anomalous lightning incidence during the summer 2012/2013 in Southeast Brazil.
International Journal of Climatology. v 38. 996-1009.
pdf version
Geirinhas, J.L., Trigo, R.M., Libonati, R., Coelho, C.A.S., Palmeira, A.C.,
2018: Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil.
International Journal of Climatology. v.38, 4, 1760-1776.
pdf version
Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2017: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2016.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, August 2017. Vol. 98, No. 8,
p. S102-S104.
pdf version
Coelho, C.A.S., Firpo, M.A.F., Maia, A.H.N., MacLachlan, C., 2017:
Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy
season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil. International Journal of
Climatology. v 37, S1, 398-411.
pdf version
Martins, E.S.P.R., Coelho, C.A.S., Haarsma, R., Otto, F.E.L.,
King, A., Oldenborgh, G.J.V., Kew, S., Philip, S., Vasconcelos Junior, F.C.,
Cullen, H., 2017: A multimethod attribution analysis of the prolonged
Northeast Brazil hydrometeorological drought (2012-16). Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society. v.99, 65-69.
pdf version
Turasie, A.A., Coelho, C.A.S., 2016: Cointegration modelling for empirical
South American seasonal temperature forecasts. International Journal of Climatology.
pdf version
Lowe, R, Coelho, C.A.S., Barcellos, C., Carvalho, M.S., Catão, R.C., Coelho, G.E.,
Ramalho, W.M., Bailey, T.C., Stephenson, D.B., Rodó, X., 2016: Evaluating probabilistic
dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil. eLife, Vol. 5, p. 1.
pdf version
Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2016: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2015.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, August 2016. Vol. 97, No. 8,
p. S102-S104.
pdf version
Coelho, C.A.S., Cardoso, D.H.F., Firpo, M.A.F., 2015: Precipitation diagnostics
of an exceptionally dry event in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,
Vol. 1, p. 1. pdf version
Freire, J.L.M., Freitas, S.R., Coelho, C.A.S., 2015: Calibraçcao do modelo regional BRAMS
para a previsao de eventos climaticos extremos. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, Vol. 30, p. 158-170.
pdf version
Coelho, C.A.S., De Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S.,
Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custódio, A.S., Dutra, L.M.M., Da Rocha, R.P., Rehbein, A., 2015:
The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections.
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 1, p. 1. pdf version
Pezza, A.B., Coelho, C.A.S., 2015: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in State of Climate in 2014.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, July 2015. Vol. 96, No. 7, p. S99-S100.
pdf version
Otto, F.E.L., Coelho, C.A.S., King, A., Perez, E.C., WAda, Y., Oldenborgh, G.J.V.,
Haarsma, R., Haustein, K., Uhe, P., Aalst, M.V., Aravequia, J.A., Almeida, W., Cullen,
H., 2015: Factors other than climate change, main drivers of 2014/15 water shortage in
southeast Brazil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, p. S35-S40.
pdf version
Lowe, R., Carvalho, M.S, Coelho, C.A.S., Barcellos, C., Bailey, T.C., Stephenson, D.B.,
Rodó, X., 2015: Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics. Lancet Infectious Diseases,
Vol. 15, p. 20. pdf version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho, C.A.S., 2014: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone,
in State of the Climate in 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society July 2013. Vol. 95, No. 7, p. S104-S105. pdf
version
Lowe, R., Barcellos, C., Coelho, C.A.S., Bailey, T.C., Coelho, G.E., Graham, R.,
Jupp, T., Ramalho, W. M., Carvalho, M.S. ; Stephenson, D.B., Rodó, X., 2014: Dengue outlook
for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal
climate forecasts. Lancet Infectious Diseases, v. 14, 619-626.
Manuscript
and
Appendix
Rodrigues, L.R.L., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Coelho, C.A.S., 2014:
Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea
surface temperature forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 42, 597-616.
pdf version
Coelho, C.A.S., 2013: Comparative skill assessment of consensus
and physically based tercile probability seasonal precipitation
forecasts for Brazil. Meteorological Applications, 20, 236-245.
pdf version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2013: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in
State of the Climate in 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. August 2013, Vol.
94, No. 8, S103-S104. pdf
version
Coelho, C.A.S., I. A. F. Cavalcanti, S. M. S. Costa, S. R. Freitas, E. R. Ito, G. Luz, A. F.
Santos, C. A. Nobre, J. A. Marengo and A. B. Pezza, 2012: Climate diagnostics of three
major drought events in the Amazon and illustrations of their seasonal precipitation
predictions. Meteorological Applications, 19, 237-255.
pdf version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2012: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in
State of the Climate in 2011. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. July 2012, Vol.
93, No. 7, S118-S119. pdf
version
García-Serrano, J, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and C.A.S. Coelho, 2012: Understanding Atlantic
multidecadal variability prediction skill. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39,
doi:10.1029/2012GL053283. pdf
version
Tim E. Jupp, T. E., R. Lowe, C.A.S. Coelho and D. B. Stephenson, 2012: On the
visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts. Phil. Trans. R.
Soc. A, 370, 1100-1120
Pezza, A. B. and C.A.S. Coelho, 2011: The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, in
State of the Climate in 2010. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Vol. 92, No.
6, June 2011, S136-S137. pdf
version
Coelho C.A.S. and S.M.S. Costa, 2010: Challenges for integrating seasonal climate
forecasts in user applications. Current Opinions in Environmental
Sustainability.Vol. 2, Issue 5-6, December 2010, 317-325.
pdf version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2010: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2009. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
July 2010.Vol. 91, No. 7, S1-S224. pdf
version
Pezza, A. B., I. Simmonds and Coelho C.A.S., 2010: The unusual Buenos Aires snowfall of
July 2007. Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 4, 249-254.
pdf version
Balmaseda M.A., Y. Fujii, O. Alves, T. Lee, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, D. Stammer,
Y. Xue, H. Freeland, M. J. McPhaden, L. Goddard and C.A.S. Coelho, 2010:
Role of the ocean observing system in an end-to-end seasonal forecasting system.
OceanObs'09 Conference.
pdf version.
Lowe R., T.C. Bailey, D.B. Stephenson, R.J. Graham,
C.A.S Coelho, M. Sa Carvalho and C. Barcellos, 2010: Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an
early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences.
pdf version
Coelho C.A.S. and L. Goddard, 2009: El Nino-induced tropical droughts in
climate change projections.
Journal of Climate . Vol. 22, No. 23, 6456-6476.
pdf version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2009: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2008. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
August 2009.Vol. 90, No. 8, S1-S196. pdf
version
Shongwe M. E., G. J. van Oldenborgh, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk,
B. de Boer, C.A.S. Coelho, and M. K. van Aalst, 2009:
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global
warming. Part I: Southern Africa
Journal of Climate . Vol. 22, No. 13, 3819-3837.
pdf version
Stephenson D. B., C.A.S. Coelho, and I. Jolliffe, 2008:
Two extra components in the Brier Score Decomposition.
Weather and Forecasting . Vol. 23, No. 4, 752-757.
pdf version
Oldenborgh G. J. van, C.A.S. Coelho and F. J. Doblas-Reyes 2008: Exploratory analysis and verification of seasonal forecasts
with the KNMI Climate Explorer. ECMWF Newsletter No 116.
Summer 2008, 4-5. pdf
version
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2008: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2007. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
July 2008.Vol. 89, No. 7, S1-S180. pdf
version
Coelho C.A.S., C. A. T. Ferro, D. B. Stephenson and D. J. Steinskog, 2008:
Methods for Exploring Spatial and Temporal Variability of Extreme Events in
Climate Data
Journal of Climate . Vol. 21, No. 10, 2072-2092.
pdf version
F. J. Doblas-Reyes, C.A.S. Coelho and D. B. Stephenson, 2008:
How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce
forecast quality? Meteorological Applications, 15,
155-162. pdf version
Shongwe M.E., C.A.T. Ferro, C.A.S. Coelho and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2007:
Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
135, 4185-4201. pdf version
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda and
R. Graham,
2007: Integrated seasonal climate forecasts for South America.
CLIVAR Exchanges. No.43. Vol. 12, No. 4, 13-19.
Pezza, A. B. and Coelho C.A.S., 2007: The Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone, in State of the Climate in 2006. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
June 2007. S1-S135. pdf
version
Shongwe, M. E., C. A. T. Ferro, C.A.S. Coelho and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2007:
Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. European
Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April 2007.
abstract (pdf) .
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and
G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate.
Vol. 19, No. 15, 3704-3721. pdf
version
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda,
A. Guetter and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: A Bayesian approach for
multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and
river flows in South America. Meteorological Applications, 13,
73-82.
pdf
version
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, 2006:
The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated coupled multi-model South American
seasonal predictions during ENSO. Special
issue of Advances in
Geosciences. First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on
The El Nino phenomenon and its global impact. Vol. 6, 51-55. pdf
version
Oldenborgh G. J. van and Coelho C.A.S., 2006: Probabilistic
seasonal forecast verification with the Climate Explorer. European
Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 2-7 April 2006.
abstract (pdf) and
poster (pdf)
New, M., B. Hewitson, D. B. Stephenson, A. Tsiga,
A. Kruger, A. Manhique, B. Gomez,
C. A. S. Coelho, D. N. Masisi, E. Kululanga,
E. Mbambalala, F. Adesina, H. Saleh, J. Kanyanga,
J. Adosi, L. Bulane, L. Fortunata,
M. L. Mdoka and R. Lajoie, 2006: Evidence of trends
in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa.
J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres). Vol. 111, D14102.
doi:10.1029/2005JD006289. pdf
version
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and
G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2005: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America.
ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 461, 26pp.
Coelho C.A.S., D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Balmaseda,
2005: From multi-model ensemble predictions to well-calibrated probability
forecasts: Seasonal rainfall forecasts over South America 1959-2001
CLIVAR Exchanges. No.32. Vol. 10, No. 1, 14-20.
Stephenson D. B., C.A.S. Coelho, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Balmaseda,
2005: Forecast Assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of
multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus A .
Vol. 57, 253-264. pdf version
Souza E.B., T. Ambrizzi and C.A.S. Coelho, 2004: Two ENSO episodes
with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the Northeastern
South America. Revista Meteorologica. Vol. 29, 5-16.
pdf version
Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and
D. B. Stephenson, 2004: Forecast calibration and combination: A simple
Bayesian approach for ENSO.
Journal of Climate . Vol. 17, No. 7, 1504-1516.
Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and
D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Skill of coupled model seasonal
forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts.
ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 426, 16pp.
Coelho C.A.S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and
D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability
forecasts by Bayesian combination with empirical forecasts. Seventh
International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography
, Wellington - New Zealand - March 2003.
abstract or pdf version
Coelho C.A.S., C.B. Uvo and T. Ambrizzi, 2002: Exploring the
impacts of the tropical Pacific SST on the precipitation patterns over
South America during ENSO periods. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology. 71, 185-197.
pdf version
Coelho C.A.S. and T. Ambrizzi, 2000: Climatological studies of
the influences of El Ni� Southern Oscillation events in the precipitation
pattern over South America during austral summer. Sixth International
Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography ,
1 , 149-150, Santiago - Chile - April 2000.
abstract or pdf version
Coelho C.A.S., A.R.M. Drumond, T. Ambrizzi and G. Sampaio, 1999: Estudo
climatologico sazonal da precipitacao sobre o Brasil em episodios extremos
da Oscilacao Sul. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, 14(1), 49-65.
pdf version
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